2021 Elections: A disaster for Democrats?
Author - Mackenzie France
Mackenzie France is a Policy Fellow of The Pinsker Centre, a campus-based think tank which facilitates discussion on global affairs and free speech. The views in this article are the author’s own.
It would be an understatement to say that the recent off-year elections did not go well for the Democratic Party. A huge upset in the Virginia Gubernatorial race and Virginia state assembly, coupled with a much closer than expected Gubernatorial race in New Jersey paints a very unsettling picture for the Democrats in the 2022 mid-terms. The Republicans are enjoying a highly favourable national environment with an unpopular President Biden and a deadlocked Congress. This, along with strong local candidates struck the final coup de grace in Virginia (VA) and almost toppled the Democrats in typically blue New Jersey. What happened in these more localised races is incredibly important for the Democratic outlook in 2022. The question the Democrats need to be reflecting on is simply this: How much trouble are we in?
Beginning in Virginia, Glenn Youngkin’s stunning defeat of former governor Terry McAullife has set alarm bells off for Democrats. If you had asked me just a few months ago, I’d have told you the Democrats were a shoe in, in Virginia. The pollsters would also have said the same, the average McAuliffe lead back in the start August being around 6 or 7% (538 averages). After all, 538 analysis has repeatedly shown that Virginia is more democratic than the nation as a whole and incumbent governor Ralph Northam stormed to victory by 9 points in 2017.
Of course, one can dismiss this as normal swings away from the incumbent party. For example, VA went blue in 2017 after the election of a Republican president and now red after the election of a Democrat in 2020. But the key issue for Democrats in this race was turnout, and this is likely to be the deciding factor going into the mid-terms.
Turnout in Virginia was supercharged with a highly motivated Republican base. Whilst simultaneously being an impressive local candidate, Youngkin shifted the campaign onto ‘hot button’ issues like education and the economy. He also managed to walk the magic line of being endorsed by Trump but not being beholden to him – the former president did not even visit Virginia - a well-judged piece of electioneering. Republicans not just in Virginia but in New Jersey too came out in force. In districts and counties where the Republican vote share is higher, turnout took less of a dip compared to 2020 relative to others, most significantly a record 53% of voters in Virginia turned out this time compared to only 43% in 2017. Perhaps McAuliffe’s defeat will finally put to bed the notion that high turnout is good for the Democrats. This year, it sank them.
Looking into demographics of the results is what should really unsettle Democrats. Biden appears to be bleeding voters in states like Virginia with many of his 2020 supporters staying at home for other Democrats, or even worse, directly switching to the Republicans. Take white women in Virginia as an example, in Virginia white women make up nearly 40% of the electorate and thus the margins that parties achieve with this demographic are essential. In 2020, white women in Virginia sided narrowly with Biden over Trump, this time the demographic went decidedly Republican with a 13% swing from white women to the GOP. This may well have cost the Democrats the governors race and should be a stark warning to the Democrats that they may be losing ground with their key demographics.
New Jersey also shocked the nation with a much closer than expected race. Republican Jack Ciattarelli gave incumbent Phil Murphy a run for his money with the final 3-point win for the Democrats being much smaller than pollsters predicted. To Murphy’s credit, he is the first Democrat to be re-elected in New Jersey for over 40 years, but he certainly wasn’t elected by 8-10 points as the polls pointed too.
Once again, the surge in Republican turnout contributed to the final result. In Ocean County New Jersey, which leans heavily Republican, turnout soared by around 30% when compared to 2017. Highly motivated Republicans in New Jersey were unified over disagreements with the incumbent governor as well as the President himself. Ciattarelli did a commendable job in shifting the campaign toward issues like property taxes as well as Murphy’s COVID-19 policies.
Consequently, Murphy went from a 16-point win in 2017 down to a measly 3 points and Democrats took significant hits in the state’s legislatures. Of just as much concern to the Democrats was the loss of New Jersey state senate President Steve Sweeney. Democrat Sweeney was humiliated by Republican Edward Durr who spent 5-10 thousand dollars compared to Sweeney’s near half a million. If this doesn’t show the serious trouble the democrats find themselves in, what can?
In summary, highly motivated Republicans have seriously bruised the Democrats in the 2021 cycle of elections. The focus on grassroots issues as well benefiting from an unpopular Democratic president proved to be an ideal electoral landscape for the Republicans that produced results like Youngkin in Virginia and Durr in New Jersey. The Democrats dismiss these results as swings away from the incumbent at their peril. The Democrats must shake up both their local and national policies considerably, lest their electoral prospects get worse going into 2022. Moreover, if swings like this are reproduced next year (and granted that is a big if), then the House and Senate are a foregone conclusion. In effect marking the end of Biden’s first term. In short, this November was quite the disaster for Democrats, but it is not too late for them to learn the lessons needed to prevent calamity in the mid-terms.