Unusual Cause For Optimism? The Security Outlook For Israel In 2022
Author - Mackenzie France
Mackenzie France is a Policy Fellow of The Pinsker Centre, a campus-based think tank which facilitates discussion on global affairs and free speech. The views in this article are the author’s own.
The Israel Defence Force (IDF) has outlined a ‘positive outlook’ for the security of Israel in 2022. But, with the prospect of strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and a volatile situation in the Gaza Strip and West Bank, how likely is a ‘mostly peaceful’ 2022 for the state of Israel?
The IDF military review set out a number of reasons to be optimistic about Israel’s security in 2022. Foremostly, the number of fatalities inflicted on Israelis from terror attacks in the West Bank was the lowest in a decade in 2021. During conflict surrounding the Sheikh Jarrah controversy in May 2021, the Iron Dome achieved 90% efficacy in intercepting Hamas’ rocket attacks.
On the world stage, the signing of relatively new normalisation accords with Arab states have begun to demonstrate their benefits as Israel has expanded its capacity to operate within the region. Continued cooperation has also allowed for a consistent line to be taken against Iran and their nuclear ambitions, a core challenge for Israeli defence policy in 2022.
Successful IDF operations in 2021 are also a cause for optimism. According to their end of year review, the IDF kept routes used by Israel’s adversaries to smuggle weapons closed for approximately 70% of the year. There has also been notable success of IDF anti-terror operations, such as ‘Operation Guardian of the Walls’which saw 820 terror targets struck and 130 terrorists neutralised in the first week alone. In addition, 2021 saw more operations conducted in Syria than in the previous two years, seriously impacting the ability of Iran and their proxies to launch attacks against the Israeli state.
All these factors combined have enabled the IDF to be confident that Israel’s adversaries, namely Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran and Syria would be less likely to initiate attacks against Israel. In short, Israel has achieved notable security successes in 2021 which the IDF have rightly asserted as causes for optimism.
However, the principal worry is the possibility of serious retaliation by Iran should Israel decide to attack their nuclear facilities. According to a Judah Ari Gross article published last year, the IDF is ‘pressing ahead with its preparations for a potential strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities’ and that such preparations are continuing ‘apace’. The circumstances necessary for Israel deciding to strike Iran are not yet clear and it is not difficult to see how the costs of such a decision may outweigh the benefits. Israel would need to be certain of the ability to significantly set back Iran’s nuclear programme and simultaneously prepared for the possibility of large-scale retaliation, perhaps in the form of all-out war.
Secondly, there is doubt about the longevity of the cease-fire between Hamas and Israel from last May’s conflict. The IDF is aware of the need to dedicate significant resources and personnel in the region to address the large number of rocket-firing locations which put strain on the Iron Dome (as even despite a 90% interception rate, the sheer number of projectiles meant that a not insignificant amount made it through). Consequently, 2022 will be a significant test of the ability of the newly created team for locating and destroying launch sites to reduce the number of projectiles fired at Israel.
Finally, an increase in violence in the West Bank may also be cause for concern given the general increase in violence over 2021, with twice as many shootings and stabbings in the region than in 2020. This can be partially attributed put to the easing of the COVID-19 restrictions, but unrest as seen last May remains a perpetual risk.
Overall, it is right that the IDF are cautiously optimistic for 2022. The IDF have reduced Iran’s capacity to sponsor terror and defended of Israel against Hamas during the May conflict. This has put Israel on steady footing going into 2022. It is likely that 2022 will see further normalisation and cooperation between Israel and Arab states on anti-terror operations. However, Israel should proceed with caution where striking Iranian nuclear technology is concerned, such attacks should only take place with the certainty of significantly damaging the nuclear programme. Moreover, 2022 will test the viability of long-term ceasefires, as well as the IDF’s ability to reduce further the threat from rocket attacks on Israeli civilians. 2022 could very well be a mostly peaceful year for Israel. However, concerns over Israeli strikes on Iran and the IDF’s ability to contain the volatility of the West Bank and Gaza strip will continue to inform Israel’s security outlook in 2022.
